Listen to a reading of this article:

Back in November The Military Times published a Ukrainian intelligence claim, which was picked up and repeated by numerous other mainstream publications, alleging that Russia was going to invade Ukraine by the end of January.

Then in late January when the calendar debunked the Military Times incendiary headline “Russia preparing to attack Ukraine by late January”, that same outlet ran a much less viral story with the headline “Russia not yet ready for full-scale attack says Ukraine“.

Now here in early February, the Murdoch press has put out a spin piece of a sort we’re likely to see more of in coming days claiming that Russia has not invaded because the US and its allies have “ruined” Moscow’s plans by telling everyone the invasion is coming. In an article titled “Ukraine-Russia tensions: Moscow’s plans ‘ruined’ after US and Britain call out possible invasion“, Ukraine’s defense minister Hanna Maliar tells Sky News that Putin has not yet invaded because his murderous plot was thwarted by a plucky band of imperial states who would not be prevented from speaking their truth.

“It’s important to understand that when we or our western partners name the date of the possible invasion, we are ruining their plans,” Maliar told Sky News. “And the dates that were already told in public – it’s ruined plans, nothing will happen in these days. But the danger still exists.”

In the same piece Ukraine’s information minister Oleksandr Tkachenko was asked if he believed Russia would already have invaded if not for all the western talk of an imminent attack, to which he replied, “As a typical robber, if he does not see defence or at least does not see talking, he will act.”

At no time in the article is any consideration given to the possibility of a far simpler explanation for the missing Russian invasion: that Russia never intended to invade. That possibility is just skimmed right over in favor of the seemingly far less likely scenario that the Russian government thought it could orchestrate a massive invasion without anybody saying anything about it and was forced to abandon its plans in disappointment when that nonsensical gamble failed to pay off.

And now we’ve already got western media publishing other Ukrainian military claims that the real invasion will be coming on February 20th.

“February 20 is noted as a potential start date for the invasion: that is when the Winter Olympics ends in Beijing, and President Putin, 69, eager to woo the Chinese, may not wish to tarnish the event,” The Times wrote in late January.

As February 20th comes and goes without an invasion and predictions of false flag operations and Kremlin-backed coups fail to pan out, we will likely be seeing more such spin jobs from the western media claiming that those things did not happen because of measures that were taken by the US and its allies to prevent it. It may be used to score political points by claiming Biden “prevented” a Ukraine invasion with his willingness to stand up to Putin by pouring weapons into Ukraine and sending troops to Eastern Europe.

These claims will be built entirely on specious reasoning.

The fallacious nature of the narrative that western powers are thwarting diabolical plots from the Kremlin with their cold war aggressions is best illustrated in this short clip from The Simpsons in which Homer believes that bears are being kept out of a generally bear-free neighborhood by the newly invented “bear patrol”.

“Ah, not a bear in sight! The Bear Patrol must be working like a charm,” says Homer.

“That’s specious reasoning, Dad,” Lisa replies, picking up a stone from the ground. “By your logic I could claim that this rock keeps tigers away.”

“Oh, how does it work?” asks her father.

“It doesn’t work,” says Lisa. “It’s just a stupid rock. But I don’t see any tigers around, do you?”

At which point Homer offers to buy Lisa’s rock from her, because he’s a fuckin’ idiot.

The logical fallacy that has afflicted both Homer Simpson and those who claim the US power alliance is preventing a Russian invasion of Ukraine is known as cum hoc ergo propter hoc (“with this, therefore because of this”), which is the fallacy that correlation implies causation. It’s when someone puts forward the claim that because two things happened concurrently (or failed to happen as in the examples we’re looking at here), one must have caused the other. Homer’s bear patrol kept the bears away. Lisa’s anti-tiger rock kept the tigers away. The west’s shrieking about an imminent Russian invasion kept the Russian invaders away.

Alternatively, it’s possible that there were no bears or tigers threatening the streets of Springfield, and that there was no Russian invasion threatening Ukraine. That this was all a narrative used to ramp up cold war escalations, move some expensive military inventory, manufacture the global consensus that Putin is a Hitler-like menace who must be aggressively checked at all times by all nations, or potentially heaven forbid to lay the groundwork for aggressions from US/Ukraine/NATO powers.

However this thing unfolds, it’s a safe bet that the rhetoric won’t be getting any more logically sound any time soon. So keep that Simpsons clip handy.


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42 responses to “The Specious Reasoning Behind Claims That The US Thwarted An Invasion Of Ukraine”

  1. Very good Caitlin !

    Homer Simpson is the epitome of the dumbed down ZIO/US WAR nation !

    Without WAR the ZIO/US cannot survive and they are only now capable of ‘looking’ dangerous !

    The Rothschilds have few options now but to pull the plug on the impossibly DEBT ridden nation !

    FED just prints up money whenever they feel like it and buy up EVERYTHING for FREE !

  2. this is the situation where they know we know they know we know they’re bullshitting. Russia has been playing the game and always a few moves ahead, as well.

  3. Spot on as usual, Caitlin. Thank you!

  4. What a load of bovine excrement.
    The USA can’t even muster the will to prevent the current cross-border invasion from Mexico.

    1. They don’t want to stop the Invasion – cheap labor is the motivation !

  5. After reading all of your comments, I realized that the USA is already at war with Russia and more.
    US pioneered the hybrid war, all of the propaganda, special operations, drone strikes, economic sanctions, and cyber warfare, together constitute hybrid warfare.
    Recent reports stating that Russia is winning the hybrid war are only published to justify the US to redouble its already massive globe-spanning effort.
    The hybrid warfare does not have any end, nobody wins it, it is ongoing. It basically replaced the Cold War, but added a lot more technology to it.
    The US is definitely losing its Information War, simply because its MSM Corporations are so willing to participate in the grand global hybrid warfare, that they are overplaying their hand and make their audience feel like idiots. Any person cannot consume their mass-produced lies and low quality content without experiencing cognitive dissonance, and who likes that?
    Also true that there are almost no technical jobs in the US that are not related to the weapons production or cyberwar. With the recent electronic chip shortage, all the remaining fabrication facilities in the US (most production currently being in Taiwan) are applying for government grants to build chips for the military.

    1. We’ve always been at war, with Eastasia! What did Trump, Putin and Assamge do to destroy Democracy ‘n Freedum, today? Look, over HERE! RussiaRussia… CHINA! Their REAL war is right HERE, it’s on YOU?

      And they’d already WON 4 decades ago!

  6. Russia has added no new troops or equipment to the Russian/Ukrainian border since April 2021, in fact it’s been the opposite several NATO countries along with the U.S. and Canada have moved a modest number of troops and substantial amounts of weapons into the Ukraine.
    The Russian’s have no intention of invading Ukraine as they have no interest in becoming liable in running a failed state that has had its industrial base gutted, it’s infrastructure run into the ground, it’s wealth stolen by oligarchs and have had their best and brightest flee the country.
    Nor does she need a false flag event as an excuse to retaliate as Ukrainian forces are already indiscriminately shelling non strategic residential districts in the Donbass on an almost daily basis killing innocent civilians by the dozens in droves, she has legitimate reasons as per the Minsk agreement to strike anytime she’s wishes.
    Any Russian assault would be done mainly over the horizon with standoff weapons. They can easily decimate any and all military opposition in Ukraine including their foreign “advisors” and command centres and the equipment without a single soldier having to place a single footstep in Ukraine.
    It’s the west who desperately need something to happen for several reasons. For one, for economic reasons to stave off an implosion of the U.S. economy due to its ponzied mismanagement, with arms manufacturing being the biggest sector left in their outsourced economy. Another reason is to cut Europe off from Russian energy supplies thus making Europe dependant on U.S. energy at a highly inflated price.
    A third reason could be the neocons simply wishing to save face after the debacle in Afghanistan and more people starting to see through the lies of their Middle Eastern adventures.
    But their second biggest fear of Germany freeing themselves from Western interference and moving closer to Russia is not mentioned much even though the Hegemony has been manipulating events to prevent this for over a hundred years. Their biggest fear of a Sino/ Russian Alliance is being realised in leaps and bounds every day due to the ineptitude of the U.K, the U.S. and their vassals.
    The Russians have shown extraordinary patience over Ukraine, and Syria knowing full well who the real culprits are. After all they know that time is on their side with the U.S.’s imperial reign coming to an end and every day that they can buy sees a weaker west. It’s the west, which sadly includes butt licking vassal states like Australia that need something to happen soon as the time in the sun as an empire is running out.
    One can only hope that Russian patience holds fast and western imperialism goes out slowy with a whimper instead of quickly with a bang.
    Because no one wins if it goes out with a bang.

  7. Hi, it’s Volodya. How you been doing, durachok? Father Christmas good to you this year? [Putin]
    Nah, money’s tight, and Olenka has been busting my nuts for not enough Christmas bling. You? [Zelensky]
    Gotta go to the Chinese Winter Olympics in February. Gotta meet with Pooh-Bear. Boring dude. [P]
    Yeah, look, we gotta settle down the homies. They are itchin’ for a fight in Donbass. [Z]
    Don’t talk to me about those Donbass-holes! They’re on my balls every day. Start a fight and get Daddy-kins to help when they get a bloody nose. Know the type, Vova? [P]
    Jesus. Worse than watching Giuliani on Dancing with the Stars. Hey, I got an idea, Votchka. Wanna have some fun this winter? [Z]
    Bring it on! [P]
    Hey, let’s shake some chain on the border and see if Biden will buy in. He’ll send us some swag, no doubt. Wanna buy some second-hand American weapons? [Z]
    So what do I get out of it, Vova? [P]
    Get American nipples hard. Big Orange will dig it. He’ll send you some, I dunno, hotels? Ivanka the MILF? [Z]
    I’m listening. Winter’s pretty boring up here. [P]
    Let’s have a false flag operation. We can rattle sabers at each other, maybe Honey-Poo can send you some righteous change, buy some military swag. You in? [Z]
    Yeah, WTF. Biden will get some approval points, but who cares. Stir up the Americans, for yucks. [P]
    TTYL, dude. Gonna hit the beaches at Yalta. Hey wait – you evil Commies stole that from us, right? I forgot. Whatever. Catch you on TikTok.

  8. Christopher Hall Avatar
    Christopher Hall

    I was recently asked what are the news outlets least influenced by the ruling class and that if they do report the news with a bias, which ones report in favor of the brutal truth. Please send your thoughts.

  9. ‘As long as the West continues to provide military assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the breakaway republics of the region decided to use their air defenses to attack any foreign aircraft that may pose a threat to the security of the republics. <== Pravda
    Air defense forces of the People's Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk are prepared to attack any foreign aircraft over the Donbas

    Western news does not mention breakaway republics..

  10. It is smart to know the truth and stupid to believe a lie. Shun the liars!

    Truth in Media

  11. That simpsons gag started life as a Nasrudin story. Sikh humor and wisdom…

    One day Mullah Nasrudin was sprinkling some powder on the ground around his house.

    “Mullah, what are you doing?” a neighbor asked.

    “I want to keep the tigers away.”

    “But there are no tigers within hundreds of miles.”

    “Effective, isn’t it?” Mullah replied .

    There are many more, look him up

    1. Thanks for making me discover Mullah Nasreddin, of whom I’d never heard before and who is certainly worth the ride. However it seems he was just about everything BUT Sikh :o)
      More ethnically Seljuq and religiously Sufi actually even though he’s been transposed in other cultures.
      To keep our eyes on the ball, I found this story in his Wikipedia entry that reminded me of the recent exchange between Matt Lee and Ned Price.
      A neighbour came to the gate of Mullah Nasreddin’s yard. The mullah went to meet him outside.
      “Would you mind lending me your donkey today, Mullah?”, the neighbour asked, “I have some goods to deliver.”
      The mullah didn’t feel inclined to lend out the animal to that particular man. However, not to seem rude, he answered:
      “I’m sorry, but I’ve already lent him to somebody else.”
      All of a sudden the donkey could be heard braying loudly behind the wall of the yard.
      “But Mullah,” the neighbour exclaimed. “I can hear it behind that wall!”
      “Whom do you believe,” the mullah replied indignantly, “the donkey or your mullah?”

      1. PS: According to “a source who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not allowed to talk to the press” (aka a CIA operative), the donkey’s bray was Russian disinformation.

        1. LOL Now I am glad that my mom gave Nasreddin book to me to read when I was a kid. It teaches you how not to be fooled.

  12. Republicofscotland Avatar

    Its about time Russia countered, lets see how they like it on their doorstep, Monroe Doctrine here we come.

    1. Where is the public directory for any willing to download and sign opt-out forms regarding participating in WW3?

  13. Mike Lindell (the pillow guy) has been doing this same kind of repeating faceplant with his covidiot rallies and frequent predictions that Trump will be reinstated as president by a certain date. Like end-of-the-world kooks, conservatives keep being 100% sure and 100% wrong. It’s both entertaining and educational.

  14. George Gorgeous Avatar
    George Gorgeous

    When will the US return the billions of dollars in gold they took from the Ukraine for “safekeeping” at the time of the last crisis?
    Did they ever return the German gold?

  15. It reminds me of the story of these two gentlemen in bowler hats sitting on opposite seats in a compartment of a train just out of London’s King’s Cross and bound for Edinburgh. Every five minutes, one of them gets up, opens the window, throws a pill onto the ballast, shuts the window, sits back down and resumes reading his Financial Times.
    As they are nearing Peterborough, the other gentleman says to him: “Excuse me Sir but may I ask why, every five minutes, you get up and throw a pill out of the window?”
    The guy looks at him in commiseration for his obvious mental handicap and replies matter-of-factly:
    – It’s against the elephants Sir!
    This is followed by a long silence that the second gentleman eventually breaks by objecting sheepishly:
    – But… there’s never been any elephant on the line linking London to Edinburgh!
    – Efficacious, isn’t it?

  16. If a lie falls in the forest and nobody hears it, is it still a lie? For each liar, there must be a lie-buyer, or else it’s not really a lie.
    The quality of official lying has taken a decided downturn these days. Back when the Vietnam War of Liberation was going on, the US Govit, by golly, put some hard work and craftsmanship into lies. There was a “lie gap” with the Rooskies, who pumped out low-quality lies, but the Tonkin Gulf lie, now, there was a jewel in the Art of the Lie! The Free World was as snobby as a French food critic about spurning fast-food McLies. Now, Americans will snap up any old lie like a lukewarm chicken nugget. Even the Donald, well, he’s no Nixon or Reagan. Shame on you, State Department! Have you no shame?

  17. Good strategy by Ukraine leaders as they would be overrun and toppled if Russia invaded. This whole drama may be about natural gas competition between two resource extraction economies. Russia, because they don’t make anything, and the USA, because they shipped manufacturing to Asia for cheap labor.

    1. True about the competition in natural gas extraction&export.
      Since the US runs 10% inflation now, they say in financial news that the sectors of economy that are supposed to still do well is Finance and Energy!
      So this is who is trying to subvert peace now, Bankers and Oil&Gas Corporations.
      Who are coincidentally members of the Council on Foreign Relations. Gasp.
      We can discuss this all we want, the truth is already out in the open. Nothing ever changes.
      They will ruin the economy, and after the fiat money is no good anymore, then they will start a war to divide the globe.

  18. When people say 911 was a false flag by the US government to usher in Homeland Security and the Patriot Act that was written before the event they are conspiracy theorists. But when the US government acknowledges false flags happen, it is fact. This is a clear case of the pot calling the kettle black.

  19. Caitlin, the use of the Simpons with homer and lisa was priceless. It is true, a picture is worth a thousand words but your words were so true as well.

  20. There’s no way the US State Department would have unleashed the imminent invasion hysteria if there had been any evidence that an invasion was imminent.

  21. Republicofscotland Avatar

    Well Nato must be fed up waiting on Russia to invade Ukraine, so Bloomberg published news that Russia HAD invaded Ukraine.

    Luckily it didn’t lead to a change reaction in hostilities

    1. It’s getting warmer: we are getting closer to the people who are writing the script for Russia’s invasion into Ukraine.

      1. Carolyn L Zaremba Avatar
        Carolyn L Zaremba

        Look up Council on Foreign Relations.

        1. Joe Biden on Ukraine – Billion Dollars

  22. Trayvon Martin Patrols, anti-COVID rocks are working exactly as intended. Like Red Dawn; back when Russia, BernieBros and dope-smoking alt-left BLM, Antifa ‘purists’ installed TRUMP & only pussy-hat Yuppie Liberals Resistance™ saved our landlords, bosses, creditors and senile kleptocratic zombies, infecting schoolkids to vector death and chronic long-term debilitation at a indentured precariate, now devoid of health/ unemployment insurance, health or safety protection, bargaining or voting rights (or any to protect ourselves, at all?) It’s like refugees, poor immigrant workers in gangster movies: cops, company thugs, crime syndicates, totally corrupted politicians, church, media & oligarchy ALL sniffing fresh blood, & it’s “our” party who hire the stagehands forking us to the sharks… our tax dollars, at work?

  23. Why does the US need nuclear weapons, 800 overseas military bases, and an $800 billion military budget, when all it need do to stop The Enemy in its tracks is name some dates?

  24. Those dipshits who are saying that there is a plan for Putin to create several false flag events are the most stupid of all.

    Making claims about possible upcoming false flag events IS a false flag event in itself!

    If there is advance knowledge of these upcoming false flag events, doesn’t anyone think that such known events should be stopped before the damage would occur?

    But that would assume there’s actual intelligence in the military-intelligence complex.

  25. my comments about the azov-nazi’s killing donbass-civilians prevented azov-nazi’s from killing donbass-civilians (if this was a large enough platform – and who’s in control of those guys anyway).

  26. It’s unlikely the US/NATO can keep this ruse up much longer. When Feb. 20 comes and goes, without the eagerly anticipated Russian invasion of Ukraine transpiring, the West will either have to eat crow or devise yet another date for the imagined invasion. Being completely incapable of admitting they’re ever wrong about anything, the US will resort to more open provocations, finding some way to FORCE Russia’s invasion, so it can retaliate. This is all predicated on tensions and lies emanating from the US since the end of WWII and the long Cold War, which is now Cold War 2.0. The anti-communist war hawks have never been out of the loop. They will get their war by hook or by crook, and to hell with the insane and genocidal consequences. These bastards still conform to the old “Better dead than red” rationale, which informed the earlier era’s logic of the American death cult advanced by the Pentagon and CIA. Nothing has changed in 75 years, so far as any of this is concerned.

    1. But Russia is not the USSR and is not “red.” Terror of communism on the part of the ruling class started all this shit but then they discovered the profits and power in warmongering and got addicted. They were willing to switch the official enemy to Iran, no wait Iraq no wait, uh Iraq and Afghanistan, no Syria and Sudan and wait wait it’s Iran after all. But I guess they got tired of Arabs and Muslims as the official Enemy and decided the ole Red menace Russia would work again, along with China…because they threaten US hegemony and because, as Caitlin points out, and country whose leaders refuse orders from Washington DC becomes a Rogue State whose leader is a Tyrant and Dictator. The media go along in total lockstep–except for this interesting wrinkle in which Tucker Carlson is calling the bullshit on Ukraine and Matt Lee is insisting on real evidence–while working for AP?!

      1. Right, of course Russia hasn’t been the USSR since 1990 and is now almost as thoroughly capitalist as the US. But since most Americans probably haven’t realized this, it’s good strategy to treat Russia as if it’s still communist, or it’s trying to be once again, Putin wants to reinstate communism, etc., and nothing gets most Americans more lathered up for war than insinuating the commies are coming to get them. The only way the CIA and the Pentagon will permit Russia to exist on its own terms is that it first capitulates to OUR terms. The US alone is allowed to rule! That’s the guiding principle of all US foreign policy. So, demonizing Russia and China is the only way this thing will keep being carried forward. Every administration since WWII has done it, and neither party will be diverted from that omnicidal course.

  27. They are essentially claiming that sending more weapons to Ukraine prevented the war with Russia. Which of course is the opposite of the truth.
    US runs ever growing budget deficit. To send weapons to Ukraine our US government must borrow money from whoever buys US bonds, or print more money and devalue the US dollar.
    If we look back at the history of WW| and WWII, they were preceded by high inflation that turned into hyperinflation. German government did not collect war taxes but instead borrowed money to go into WWI, then lost it and ended up paying more in reparations. Economy was ruined, and hyperinflation in the thousands of percent a year followed.
    On the US side, US entered the 2nd World War after the market crash of 1929 that was caused by speculation in stocks on margin. 10 years of depression followed. Then the US joined 2nd World War.

    Already the US is financing their global wars with debt.
    If we do not stop our US politicians from borrowing to pay for whatever is expedient to their pathetic careers without term limits, they will keep increasing the US national debt. Inflation will continue to grow (US economy is 70% consumption, a country has to have some real (non-military) economy to support its currency), and when another crisis comes by (as they always do) we will end up with hyperinflation.
    Then these fools will take us to World War 3.
    So yes, holding politicians and any talking heads on MSM responsible now for lying to us now is a good start.
    Economics does not run on exchanging lies. We in the US have to produce goods that people in other countries will want to pay for. That, or militarism and war.

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